“Competition breeds excellence, and the lack of it breeds mediocrity.”
–Mike Huckabee
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(This is not a political post. This is baseball.)
I read on another blog that the Phillies AAA (IronPigs) roster is, “virtually set in stone,” and I couldn’t disagree more. As I try to make the latest in my many futile attempts to guess the IronPigs opening day roster, I’m left with many question marks. There are jobs to be earned. Some players may find themselves on the Phillies’ opening day 25–and not due to injury. Some players may find themselves in Reading, despite AAA experience and/or the promise of advancement over last season. Finally, some players may find themselves on another team, in another city. For fans here in the Lehigh Valley, the competition for roster spots should result in a quality team on the field for much of the season.
It is common for a team to have multiple options at positions, both in the Majors as well as AAA. An “inventory”–to use Joe Jordan’s word–from which to choose, and in case of injuries. This season, I feel that less is set in stone up and down the Phillies system. It could be the overall youth of the system, but more likely it starts at the top with a team in flux: The Phillies have pieces left from World Series teams and may be somewhere between trying to hang on, and a full-fledged rebuilding. The result is true competition for positions on the Phillies’ bench as well as with the IronPigs. Here’s another way to look at it: If you’re going to try to catch lightning in a bottle, if might be handy to have a bunch of bottles–even if some of them are old and leaky.
We’ll take a look at a few of those competitive spots, and how it might shape the 2014 IronPigs roster:
*-denotes: invited to Major League Spring Training
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Catchers
Wil Nieves*
Cameron Rupp*
Lou Marson*
Tommy Joseph*
Sebastian Valle*
Discussion: This one is pretty easy, but not entirely decided. Ruiz and Nieves will be with the Phillies if healthy. Both are MLB veterans without options for the minors. With 261 games of Major League experience, I have to think our old friend Lou Marson is in line for the third spot in case of injury. He’s on a minor league deal, though, so if he’s filling in for Nieves or Ruiz and has to be sent back down, he’ll probably have to pass through waivers a la Quintero last season. By mid-way through the season (or sooner), Cameron Rupp will likely have that spot–plus he has options so he can be shuttled as necessary. They’ll likely share time with the IronPigs, to start the season.
Here’s the thing though: is it inconceivable that Rupp or Marson could get out-played by Tommy Joseph and/or Seb Valle? I know, it’s doubtful, but both are talented players with AAA experience. I wouldn’t be overly shocked if either makes the IronPigs out of Spring Training. If Valle is traded or if Joseph gets another concussion (please, no–knock wood) Logan Moore should be ready for a spot with Reading.
First Base:
Darin Ruf*
John Mayberry, Jr*
Cody Overbeck
Jim Murphy
Maikel Franco*
Chris Serritella (or Brock Stassi)
Discussion: For the Phillies, much has to do with finding the primary and secondary back-up for Ryan Howard. Both Ruf and Mayberry are capable of that responsibility, although both are primarily considered outfielders at this juncture. Kevin Frandsen can do it, as well. We’ll talk about this more when we get to outfielders. Top (or, 2) prospect Franco has been playing 1B quite a bit over the winter in the Dominican League. Some believe it is his position of destiny because of his body-type. For now, I believe it has more to do with finding a better #2 for Ryan Howard for later this season. Jordan intimated all last week that he sees Franco starting in Reading. Perhaps he’s just trying to motivate the youngster into earning a spot on the IronPigs as Asche did last season. Or perhaps he’s trying to calm expectations among media and fans. Regardless, I see first base for him more because he’s blocked by Asche, than due to any current deficiencies in his game at 3B. This might change, but right now I’ve got him at 3B in Reading, and splitting time with Serritella at first, to start. We’ll revisit this when we get to third base. He could earn a spot with the IronPigs, though, without too much trouble–and that could possibly impact Cody Overbeck and Jim Murphy. Overbeck should be back, and Jordan seemed pretty certain in his comments that Jim Murphy would be at AAA. The competition at this spot likely revolves around Franco, then the pecking order behind him depending on his starting level. The whole idea with him at 1B is that he may be ready to back up Ryan Howard by the end of the season, and they want to get him prepared both defensively as well as with his bat.
Second Base
Kevin Frandsen*
Cesar Hernandez*
Jim Negrych
Discussion: Kevin Frandsen is Utley’s backup. Freddy Galvis and/or Ronny Cedeno could be in the mix there too, on the Phillies. Cesar’s job with the Phillies likely revolves around his ability to play not only Center Field, but Outfield in general. It was spoken last week that Cesar would have some time in the corner outfield spots as well as center. This makes no sense to me, and we’ll talk about it again when we get to outfielders. There’s little specific competition here, as many of the SS can play 2B as well. Frandsen will be a Phillie, Negrych an IronPig, and it seems Cesar will work primarily with the outfielders to start.
Shortstop
Freddy Galvis*
Ronny Cedeno*
Andres Blanco*
Reid Brignac*
Discussion: The Phillies need to decide whether they see Freddy Galvis as a shortstop who can play multiple positions, or as a utility/backup player. By using him as a utility player, they may be decreasing his value as a shortstop. During Spring Training, he may play his way onto the Phillies as a super-utility, or he may find himself back on the IronPigs playing shortstop every day, as he was at the end of last season. Recent comments from Ryne Sandberg suggest that he sees Galvis on the Phillies in this super-utility position. His competition as SS-backup is primarily veteran Ronny Cedeno who will also need to play his way onto the roster. Otherwise he’ll likely exercise an opt-out option (unknown date, though, at this time). Andres Blanco was invited back after an “injury red-shirt” last season. Reid Brignac looks to be the IronPigs opeing SS unless Freddy doesn’t earn a job in Philadelphia. Several of these guys can back up 2B, 3B, and OF in a pinch, as well–just as Kevin Frandsen can play here in a pinch, too. The competition is likely between Freddy and Ronny, on the Major League level, and for Blanco to prove that he is healthy and still capable of good defense.
Third Base
Maikel Franco*
Tyler Henson
Discussion: As I mentioned above, I don’t believe Maikel Franco is due to give up 3B any time soon. Prior to this past season, it was widely written (correct or not; I didn’t see them play personally) that Franco was the better defensive prospect compared with Asche. Many were suggesting Asche try 2B or corner OF. Currently, some are writing that Asche is the better defender. I don’t know. I think Asche has raised his game both offensively and defensively, and stands to be the opening day 3B for the Phillies. That’s a credit to him. He now blocks Franco. If Maikel can earn his way onto the MLB team at some point this season, he’s the one who’s going to need a second spot for flexibility. Hence, the work at 1B. Factor in Ryan Howard’s recent injury history and there could easily be a need and/or a spot available come July or August. Will Mr. Franco be ready? That’s the $25 Million Dollar question (Howard’s salary. But I digress). Maikel’s competing with himself here, for level assignment and for advancement. Frandsen, Galvis, and Cedeno are available to back up this spot on the MLB team if necessary. Brignac and Negrych can fill in here at AAA if needed.
Outfield
John Mayberry, Jr.*
Darin Ruf*
Cesar Hernandez*
Tyson Gillies*
Zach Collier*
Kelly Dugan*
Aaron Altherr*
Bobby Abreu*
Leandro Castro*
Tony Gwynn, Jr*
Clete Thomas*
Dave Sappelt
Anthony Hewitt
Steve Susdorf
Discussion: There are competitions all over the place here, as well as guys who can play multiple positions–not just in the outfield. Let’s start with John Mayberry Jr and Darrin Ruf, both of whom we know here in the Lehigh Valley. Both are right-handed bench bats who can back up 1B. They are likely redundant as Phillies if the outfield starts Brown, Revere, Byrd–healthy as expected. Ruf could be optioned and start with us here in the Lehigh Valley. If Ruf outplays Mayberry for the RH bench bat, Mayberry could be DFA’d and either arrive in Allentown or get claimed off waivers. Because he didn’t complete the arbitration process, his salary is not fully guaranteed. If another team claims him, they would pay his salary. Mayberry also backs up center, so that’s a feather in his cap. However, recent news suggests that the Phillies are looking for another CF option via trade. A player or two competing for a spot could end up elsewhere.
Abreu is likely competing with Father Time for the LH bench bat position. If not him, Tony Gwynn Jr. is a lefty who can also back up CF. Abreu has a March 26 opt-out and almost certainly won’t be an IronPig. Cesar Hernandez will be given the opportunity to earn an MLB job backing up both Utley and Revere. Most likely, he’ll start with the IronPigs playing CF. Playing him at the corner outfield spots is a rather senseless exercise as neither his bat nor his defense play well there. It will add a modicum of flexibility to his game, but really, if you’re using Cesar in RF or LF for the big club, you’re probably in trouble anyway.
Tyson Gillies is competing with his past–and with the doctors and trainers–to prove that he should be kept on the 40-man roster. He’ll likely start again with the IronPigs (if healthy), but he’ll need to find playing time in Left Field and on days when Cesar plays 2B. Leandro Castro was signed to come back to the IronPigs. He’s likely competing for the ability to show up Gwinnett again. Gwynn, Jr., Thomas and Sappelt are the free agent signings. I always say, be careful with the OFs from the PCL; Gwynn Jr played AAA Dodgers last season, and has MLB experience over parts of seven seasons with Milwaukee, San Diego, and the Dodgers. Recall, he’s a lefty who can play CF. Sappelt can also play CF, bats RH, and has MLB experience with the Reds and Cubs. I welcome them both, and each should provide some challenge: Gwynn for Abreu, and Sappelt for Castro and Gillies. I worry each could go the way of Matt Miller, Jermaine Mitchell, Joe Thurston, Valentino Pascucci, and others, as PCL guys who don’t stick around long. Clete Thomas is an IL veteran having played with Rochester last season. He bats left, and also has some MLB time with Detroit and Minnesota. I’m not sure if he plays CF defensively. Hewitt and Collier are competing for attention and advancement with the arrival of young prospects Altherr, Dugan and Perkins in Reading. If Perkins or Altherr don’t earn those spots, perhaps Hewitt and/or Collier will be back in Reading–or as backups. Both will find it difficult to break into a crowded field in Allentown initially. Finally, our friend Steve Susdorf is also under contract and could help fill in as necessary. He got a taste of the Majors last season and I’m sure he’d like to get back there. He’s competing for a spot as well.
Starting Pitchers
Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez (MAG)*
Ethan Martin*
Jonathan Pettibone*
Jesse Biddle*
Chad Gaudin*
Mario Hollands*
Jeff Manship*
Sean O’Sullivan*
Barry Enright
Chris Bootcheck
Greg Smith
David Buchanan
Brody Colvin
Mike Nesseth
Discussion: We’ll need five of these guys to to start games for the IronPigs. The Phillies will need one of them to complete a likely rotation of: Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, Hernandez (AKA Carmona). With Adam Morgan’s shoulder surgery and recovery time, the Phillies may like to keep Ethan Martin stretched out as a starter, even though everyone with internet access seems to feel he’s destined for the bullpen. If the coaching staff feel like they have enough “inventory,” he could head off to the pen right away and compete there for a job with the Philllies. As of now, though, he’s competing for that fifth starter spot with Jon Pettibone, who also ended last year injured. Jon said at the banquet last Thursday that he “feels great” and is “ready to go.” (I know, what else is he gonna say, but..)
MAG is an enigma. No one’s seen him pitch, and his elbow and/or forearm could be a problem. He’s in the mix for that fifth starter spot in Philly, could be an Extended Spring Training candidate, or could get his feet wet in American baseball with the IronPigs. He’s competing to prove he exists, and belongs.
Mr. Jordan intimated, as with Franco, that he wouldn’t hesitate to send Biddle back to Reading. Again, it could be just throwing down the challenge to make sure he (read: competes) earns his spot in the AAA rotation. But again, don’t be surprised if that’s where he starts given the “inventory” of starting pitchers. Gaudin will likely fill the swing spot with the Phillies, able to provide spot starts when necessary, as well as long relief. Greg Smith returns, and should be joined by veterans Sean O’Sullivan, Chris Bootcheck and Jeff Manship competing for starting jobs with the IronPigs. Barry Enright could be in the mix as well, or could end up as the spot starter/long man in the Zach Miner role with the IronPigs.
David Buchanan and Mike Nesseth had some nice starts down the stretch last year to help keep the IronPigs relevant in the playoff race until the final weekend of the season. They’re competing with the veterans to prove that they belong at AAA full time. Brody Colvin, once a high prospect, has struggled at times as a starter with Reading. He’s worked out of the pen as well. He could be ready for the challenge of AAA, or he might be competing to stay with the organization as a starter–or at all. Mario Hollands made a cameo appearance with the IronPigs two years ago, and has pitched his way into a Spring Training invite from the big club. He, too, is competing for the opportunity to become a full-time AAA player, and more.
Relief Pitchers
Phillippe Aumont*
Justin De Fratus*
Jake Diekman*
Luis Garcia*
Jeremy Horst*
Brad Lincoln*
Kevin Munson*
BJ Rosenberg*
Joe Savery*
Michael Stutes*
Shawn Camp*
Ken Giles*
Cesar Jimenez*
Justin Friend
Jay Johnson
Tyler Knigge
Discussion: The bullpen is always a spot where guys need to fill roles, guys move around, and lefty and righty can make the difference between AA and the Majors. I’ll not go into each of these guys individually; the IronPigs are assured of some nice talent in the pen as has been the case the past few seasons. Mike Adams, Antonio Bastardo, and Jonathan Palpelbon are secure with spots in Philadelphia as long as they are healthy and not suspended. Brad Lincoln came over in the Kratz deal and Kevin Munson will need a spot under the Rule 5 regulation. Diek, Horst and Savery compete to be a second lefty to Bastardo.
Jordan said good things about Phillippe Aumont in talking with Morning Call reporter Jeff Schuler last Thursday. It was revealed that Aumont’s difficulty with the pitching coaches was Rich Dubee, who is now gone. Aumont is certainly competing for a spot in the big league pen, but still may have some control demons to exorcise in the form of another AAA stint.
Ken Giles is a fire-baller who has earned a look-see at the big camp. It’s been reported that his slider and changeup are also worthy pitches. He has had some difficulty staying healthy in the past, and may start with Reading. He’s going to get the opportunity to compete with the big boys, though, and no doubt we’ll see him in Allentown at some point assuming he continue to stay healthy.
Tyler Knigge has had some success in Reading the past couple seasons, and is competing for the opportunity to advance. Justin Friend is competing for that first shot at the Show. As you can see, there’s competition up and down the list here, including those we did not list or discuss.
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Joe Jordan also implied that some decisions with regards to the Major League roster will be down to Ryne Sandberg and his staff. With the new coaching regime, we may see some decisions which are slightly different from those of the past.
Nevertheless, you can see that there are jobs available at virtually every position. It’s like that every year, but perhaps more so in 2014. I try not to ever predict injuries, but of course they do happen and are part of the game. Players will need to play themselves into a position to not only earn a job, but also earn the confidence in the coaches and managers. This will put them in position to step up in the unfortunate case of injury to a fellow player.
I don’t think the roster is set by any means. It will be fun to watch. I plan to tune in to Spring Training games via the computer whenever I can. Our own Cheryl Pursell will be in Clearwater for a portion of camp. We’ll file her reports as they become available. Ultimately, this roster competition should yield a highly-competitive team for the IronPigs both initially, as well as throughout the season. Competition breeds excellence.
Stay tuned, for “As the Roster Turns.”
@Kram209
noisenation.mlblogs.com 