Let’s take a look at the whole picture (well at least the part I can see)…
The IL West:
Columbus is still going strong. With a 69-42 record they have a commanding lead over Indianapolis and Louisville, both 11.5 games back.
Columbus will face Syracuse, Indianapolis, Louisville, Rochester, Pawtucket, Buffalo and Toledo to close out the season. This could have an impact on the IronPigs if Columbus comes through and stomps over Pawtucket.
Indianapolis and Louisville are 11.5 games back for their division but at 58-54 each, they still hold a chance at gaining a wild card slot. Indianapolis and Louisville still have 8 games remaining against each other which will play a role in the race for 2nd but there is a healthy dose of Columbus games mixed in there. They both also face the IronPigs for a 4 game set at home (away for the Pigs).
My call – Columbus takes the division easily. Louisville and Indianapolis balance out their wins/losses and do not make the wild card.
***
The IL Central:
This division is led by a fierce competition between Durham and Gwinnett. Durham (62-47) currently holds a 1.5 game lead over Gwinnett (61-49).
The Bulls start off a 4 game set with the Pigs tonight then move on to the RedWings, Bison, Yankees, Tide, Knights and Braves. Not an easy schedule to say the least.
Gwinnett could help out the Pigs next week. After 4 with Charlotte, they move to Pawtucket and SWB, then on to Syracuse, Norfolk and Durham.
This division is a coin flip. My feeling is that the wild card will come from whoever doesn’t take this division.
The IL North:
As of right now, our beloved Pigs are still holding on to first place. They’ve been there most of the season and the lead is now down to a half game. With Pawtucket and SWB on their heels, it won’t be an easy task to remain there for all of August.
Scranton Wilkes Barre – The Yankees have won 6 of their last 10 and won the last two games. Sitting 3 games back from first their schedule sends them to meet a tough barrel of opponents. First Louisville and Gwinnett, then Syracuse, another set with Durham, a bunch with Rochester, then Pawtucket and the Pigs. The Yankees have long been a threat in the International league and look to make a run at first here in the home stretch. It’s a tough schedule coming up but they haven’t been impacted too much with transactions yet.
Pawtucket – If the season ended today, the PawSox would be the wild card. At 62-49 they are only .5 game back from first. They have cooled a bit from their blazing run to get back into contention but can gain some more ground facing Buffalo and Charlotte this week. They have a week with Gwinnett and Columbus that will be tough and then have Syracuse, SWB and Rochester to finish out. It looks like they have the “easiest” schedule if going just by record.
IronPigs – The Pigs haven’t been scoring a lot of runs lately and that has hurt. Combine in recent transactions that have essentially placed most of this season’s stars on the bench and it isn’t looking too good. While not all bad news, here is the remaining schedule for the year:
Durham – 4 games
Norfolk – 4 games
Toledo – 4 games
Rochester – 4 games
Indianapolis – 4 games
Louisville – 4 games
Syracuse – 2 games
SWB – 2 games
Buffalo – 2 games
Syracuse – 2 games
While every game could potentially be a win, this schedule is by far not the toughest mentioned. The 8 game stretch between Indianapolis and Louiville will be tough but there are some potential spoilers out there in teams like Buffalo, Syracuse and Toledo.
For the Pigs to take the division they cannot go .500 for the rest of the season. They have to be well above that. With only 12 home games included, we have to take in account the grind of road trips and fatigue. We cannot count on both Pawtucket and SWB to lose.
For the Pigs to take this division they need to win and I hope they do. While my gut feeling sees Pawtucket taking it late, I don’t like to say it.
***
If the season ended today:
North winner – Lehigh Valley
West winner – Columbus
South winner – Durham
Wild Card – Pawtucket
My, not so educated, guess:
North winner – Pawtucket
West winner – Columbus
South winner – Gwinnett
Wild card – Durham
IL Champion – Columbus
Guess only, putting it out there to get your opinions. Feel free to comment.
OinK!
noisenation.mlblogs.com 
This Durham series will set the tone. A split would be good, anything better would be great. Anything less, very bad….My biggest concern is the need of the Phillies, especially a left handed bat off the bench. Gload has not been healthy, so Moss, Orr, or even Brown, though they want him to play, could be plucked before 9/1 and what happens on 9/1 with moves is the question as well….And someone like Kratz could be picked up by an MLB team. Yes, official trading deadline is over, but plenty of moves happen after that.
The Phillies usually add a third catcher to their roster in September. If Kratz goes anywhere I hope it’s to Philadelphia. He earned that opportunity but Phillies pitchers are more familiar with Sardinha. We’ll see what happens.
Also, did we miss that the Phillies signed veteran minor league outfielders Brent Clevlen and Chris Lubanski? Lubanski was playing independent league ball for the Chico Outlaws and is expected to be added to the Reading roster for game 2 tonight. He’s from Lansdale, PA and played for Las Vegas in the PCL last year, hitting .293 with 17 HR . Clevlen most recently was with Louisville and is also expected to go to Reading. He is a former 2nd round pick by the Tigers. He played for Gwinnett in 2010 and the Toledo Mud Hens from 2007 to 2009. He hit 22 HR for Toledo in 2008. I’m thinking maybe if some of the Ironpigs outfielders get called up in September, these guys could be replacements with AAA experience.
Nice in depth post! Like you state, this could go any of several ways depending upon how the stars are aligned. So many factors at play; I am not really sure how to call this one myself. I guess I’ll simply hang on, enjoy the ride and hope for the best outcome! OinK on!
I agree with The Corner Seat. I’ll just sit back in the Trough, crack open a beer and enjoy the ride since we haven’t had this much excitement as far as winning goes ever!!
Oink Oink!!