Blowin’ in the [Trade] Wind

“The answer my friend

is blowin’ in the wind.

The answer is blowin’ in the wind.”

–Bob Dylan

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There’s a lot of yap out there about what the Phillies will do as we approach the trade deadline later this month.  There are a lot of wild ideas and a lot of speculation.  I’m going to take a look at it today, using a little logic, and with an eye on how this might impact the IronPigs chances for a run at the Governor’s Cup and a berth in that big game at Coca Cola Park in September.

Before we start position-by-position, and address “buying” and “selling,” let’s get a couple givens out of the way:

1. It won’t be a fire sale: The attendance is too good, and the fan base too on-edge to tolerate a wholesale house-cleaning.  To do so would be to not only give up on this season, but next as well.  There’s too much money at stake to do that.
   
2. Some players are un-touchable, for various reasons:  Dom Brown and Ben Revere are solid outfield players who are young and don’t make a ton of money.  You can’t give players like that away if you expect to win again any time soon.  Cole Hamels hasn’t had the best season, but he’s still young-ish and just signed a monster deal.  He’s not going anywhere.  I would think the two guys in Reading–Franco and Biddle–would not be thrown into any deal.
3. Some players are highly unlikely to be moved:  Injuries and salary make Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard unlikely to get traded.
4. It will be more of a re-tooling.  And if they can’t get good value, they might not make as many moves in either direction as you might think.

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Starting Pitching:

Cliff Lee is the guy often brought up as a possible trade chip.  But, he’s an All Star LHP and he’s signed.  He’s the kind of guy you look to get, not the one you give up.  If I were RAJ, I’d take calls about Cliff Lee, but I wouldn’t seriously consider any of them unless they involved a Bieber Bus full of prospects and a Brinks truck full of cash.  The Phillies’ rotation is adequate at this juncture to make a run.  They need to stay healthy, and you’d like to see Halladay come back in August (can we have a rehab appearance, please?), but they won’t look to acquire starters–nor will they be trading any away.  The IronPigs should get Morgan back in August (he gets a start for GCL Phillies today) and perhaps another pitcher if Halladay’s ready in late August (Not necessarily a starter, and it may depend on when the rosters expand.  It’s one thing for the Phils to leave our playoff team alone, but they won’t necessarily be sending us Jon Pettibone, you know?)

Relief Pitchers:

Some of the young dudes haven’t stepped up as well as we might have liked.  There’s still time, of course, and Horst, of course, will be ready soon.  That will bring the IronPigs a lefty, maybe Savery.  If Mike Stutes gets healthy or if Phillipe Aumont gets things figured out, that will get us Garcia and Ramirez back.  In any case, what the Phillies need is one more reliever not less.  I do not see them moving Paplebon unless  they get a Godfather-type offer from somebody (*cough* Detroit *cough*).  I’m not sure how far they’ll go to get the piece, but we could lose a player from the IronPigs in the process.  The Pigs’ bull-pen should be alright with the leftovers as long as we can get Aumont back on track.

Catcher:

Chooch is the kind of guy you’ve got to move if you can.  I know, I like him too.  But he’s not putting up huge numbers and is on the wrong side of 30.  His contract is up after the season.  Watch what they do with Kratz for a clue on what they intend.  If Kratzie sticks around for the entire eligible rehab time and plays regularly, that’s the sign that they will almost certainly move Ruiz.  There are some teams like the Yankees who could use Ruiz.  I wouldn’t expect to get a ton in return and I wouldn’t expect it to impact the IronPigs too much:  Rupp and Lerud are probably here to stay, with ToJo getting back on his feet in Reading and Valle’s stock dropping.  Injury’s always a concern, but Suomi’s around to help.  I don’t think they’ll want to expose Quintero to waivers again if they’re trying to trade Ruiz.  I’m not expecting any AAA players to come back in  a Ruiz deal.

First Base:

As I said above, I don’t think they can move Howard, although it might be beneficial for both he and the Phillies if they could get him to an AL team where he could DH, and unload at least some of his salary.  With his injury, I just don’t see it happening this year.  I’m not sure there’s any demand for Ruf, and his fielding’s really been OK at first as well as in left field.

Second Base:

This is really the question.  Utley has tremendous value when healthy because he’s an experienced leader who plays a middle-of-the-field position and can hit for power.  He’s getting up there in years, and is not signed for next season.  Certainly, they’ll get calls.  If I’m the Phillies and I think I have any kind of chance this year, I don’t move him unless the deal is outrageous.  I’ll explain more when I get to third…  In the off-season I try to re-sign Utley to a friendly but fair deal.  Put the ball in his court to choose money or comfort/loyalty.  If he is traded, I’d expect to get at least one AAA-level piece back.  We’d lose Galvis, of course, from the ‘Pigs.  In that way, it would likely be Pig-neutral.  Or slightly negative if we’d lose both Galvis AND Hernandez.

Shortstop:

With Galvis around, and the two youngsters J.P. and Quinn further down in the system, you could almost see them moving J-Roll.  But, his salary might be prohibitive, and I’m not sure there’s a market for him.  I don’t see him going anywhere.  But, you see, this is part of why we have Freddy Galvis in Allentown right now:  He’s getting at-bats and playing regularly so that (A) the Phillies know what he is right now, and (B) he’s ready to go to Philadelphia and step in immediately should one of these guys get traded.

Third Base:

Many Philadelphia fans (not me) were down on the Young trade, but he’s really been pretty good both at the plate as well as in the field.  But, his age and contract status again have him on the way out.  Both the Yankees and the Red Sox have a need.  If RAJ is smart–and I’m not sure he is–he’ll get them bidding against each other.  That could yield a little above market value, but I wouldn’t expect a AAA player in exchange.  I’d expect Frandsen and Galvis to man the position down the stretch, with Asche getting a September call-up to prepare to challenge for the spot in Spring Training.  This is part of the reason I don’t see Utley going anywhere, because Frannie/Freddy can replace MYoung, but not MYoung and Utley–unless you’re tanking.

 

Outfield:

Delmon may get moved, as well, if somebody wants another outfielder for the run.  I would anticipate a Thome-like return, though–no AAA stuff.  This move will increase in likelihood, as well, if a major move elsewhere in the lineup results in a big-league-ready outfielder (like the Papelbon rumors) or if Howard comes back and Ruf is playing well (Brown to RF).  The IronPigs could be the beneficiary of another outfielder in a trade, but I’m not counting on it.  Castro and Gillies need to play, and they’ll fill in with Martinez, Susdorf, Fields, Orr, and DMitch if needed.

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So, what’s the bottom line for the Phillies?

They’ll try to play both sides, and be both “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline.  Some of those big pieces (no pun) could go, but only with the right deal.  It will be called a “re-tooling.”  Ruiz and MYoung are on the way out.  Perhaps DYoung.  A reliever and an outfielder could be on the way in.

So, what’s the bottom line for the IronPigs?

We’ll get some pitching help, in the form of Morgan’s return as well as possible spot starts from Zambrano if he gets healthy and Halladay if he gets a rehab appearance (Don’t even ask, Rocky).  We’ll get some bull-pen pieces as the shuffle continues and guys maybe get healthy or get brought in.  We’ll lose Galvis in August, but we’ll retain Asche and Martinez.  We could lose a guy like Castro or Gillies or Hernandez in a trade.  Orr, Fields, and Susdorf will be available for more playing time.  Rupp and Lerud will remain.  And if everything falls right, that’s enough for us to get a shot at the Governor’s Cup.

 

See you  at the park,

@Kram209