As the Pigs are chopping down the Braves for the second day in a row I thought I’d take a look at how the IronPig’s playoff chances REALLY look.
Ask the ticket office and they’ll tell you “They’re Great! Get your tickets now!”
Ask a Phillies fan and they’ll say, “Go Eagles!”
Ask me, well I’ll try to give a more thought out answer.
The IronPigs will have 22 games left.
2 more in Gwinnett. Gwinnett is in last place in the South division and with a loss tonight will be statistically eliminated from the playoffs.
Pigs SHOULD take both. 2 wins, 0 losses (of the 22 games remaining)
3 against Syracuse at home. Syracuse is in last place of the North division. The Cheifs should not be taken lightly as the Pigs have only managed to win 4 of 9 games against them this season with the home record (2-3) slightly not as bad as the away record (2-6). Fear not though, this does not seem to be the same Syracuse team we saw earlier this year.
Pigs will likely take one. 3 wins, 2 losses (of the 22)
Next up is a split series with the SWB Railriders. 2 home, 2 away. They then follow up with two more games in SWB the week after and two more at Coca Cola Park. This is a big series and as much as I’d love to see IronPig General Manager sing… I want the Pigs to win these games.
This one could go either way. Who ever is hot will take 6 of 8.
I’m thinking positively and saying Pigs take 4. 9 wins, 4 losses.
Then we see seven straight games against Buffalo. First 4 in Buffalo, the last 3 in Coca Cola Park. The Bison are tearing up the competition lately. Even if the Pigs are hot, they will have a tough fight.
I’ll say the Pigs take at least 3. 12 wins, 8 losses.
The last two games of the season at CCP will be against Pawtucket. The Pawsox spent a good portion of this season as leader of the North division but have plummeted of late. Only .5 games ahead of the IronPigs I’m sure they will be fighting hard to keep or gain an edge in a playoff race.
My call is a split. 12 wins, 10 losses.
That would leave the IronPigs with a 74 win 70 loss record.
****
Realistically, there are a lot of things that could affect the outcome of the season. Teams get hot, teams get cold. Players get hurt, called up, released, instructed to change something that doesn’t prove successful. A hot team usually beats a better team. All those old baseball theories.
From my viewpoint a just over .500 record won’t take the division nor the Wild Card. If there was less teams involved in the hunt I’d speak differently but with needing Rochester, Buffalo and Pawtucket to crap out it would take a lot of help from other teams. For the Wild Card add in Norfolk and it’s a party.
Do I want them to make it? YES!
Do I think they have what it takes to make it? Absolutely.
Do I think all the cards will fall together and IL President Randy Mobley will present the Governor’s Cup to the IronPigs in front of their home crowd? Sure, but I’m a fan. I always think my team will win…
noisenation.mlblogs.com 
Some things are out of our hands. There are some things on the schedule that look favorable and other things that do not.
Norfolk has 4 games remaining with Columbus and a whopping 7 games with Durham, the winningest team in the IL. Then they play 4 vs. Toledo, 2 vs. Gwinnett and 3 vs. Charlotte. The good part is that all those games against Toledo, Gwinnett and Charlotte are on the road. The Ironpigs should hold the tiebreaker with Norfolk on the strength of a 5-3 record against them so if we finish in a tie with Norfolk for the wild card, we’re in.
Buffalo still has 5 games against Syracuse. They play first place Rochester 7 times, Pawtucket 4 times, and a crucial 7 games vs. the Ironpigs. Buffalo has won 6 of 9 and have a comfortable lead over the Ironpigs in a tiebreaker situation. Ideally, the Ironpigs win at least 5 of the remaining 7 to even their season record vs. the Bisons at 8-8. It would be devastating to think that a 4 game sweep by Buffalo way back in April could be the difference maker in determining the wild card.
Pawtucket still must play 4 games against Louisville, those 4 games (listed above) against Buffalo, 7 against the RailRiders, 4 vs. Syracuse and then 2 against the Ironpigs at Coca-Cola Park to finish the season. The Ironpigs will finish with a winning record against the PawSox so they hold the tiebreaker advantage. Hopefully the Red Sox/Yankees rivalry will work to our advantage in those 7 games with SWB.
Wild-Card Tiebreaker Rule: The wild card team will be the non-division winning team with the highest winning percentage. Any tie in the standings for the wild card position will be broken by the following criteria and not “play-in” games. The team to advance will be the team with the most wins in the head-to-head season series between all tied teams.
Too bad the Philadelphia Phillies would never, ever intentionally beef up the AAA roster so that the AAA team might make the playoffs and have developing professional players gain valuable experience by performing in “pressure situations”.
Buffalo …….. 64-59
Pawtucket … 63-59
Norfolk …….. 64-60
IRONPIGS … 63-61
Of course, the potential players to be involved couldn’t be any less interested in helping the IronPigs because they’d rather sit on the bench in Philadelphia and be paid at the Major League rate … (heck, who would NOT think that way, to be rather honest about the whole thing)
Oh well. It has always been and will continue to be what it is. Therefore, if the IronPigs can finish .500 or above, defeat the intra-state rival Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees for a very nice trophy which can be shown off and top 9,000 fans per game for a fifth consecutive season — then it will be seen as a “good year” in certain quarters.
In my best Belushi voice:
“It’s a good year because WE SAY it is. Now, who’s with me?”
Let’s go out and cheer this team to some home wins, and let the chips fall where they may.
Spot on, as the English would say …